At a glance
- Real Madrid travel to face Bayern needing to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit, without the suspended Tchouameni and injured Courtois in the lineup.
- Arbeloa is expected to set up in a 4-4-2 with Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Rüdiger, Militao or Huijsen, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga or Thiago, Bellingham, Güler; Mbappé and Vinicius.
- Mbappé, Vinicius and Bellingham are all one yellow card away from suspension.
A match Real Madrid cannot afford to lose against Bayern
Real Madrid need to beat Bayern Munich by at least two goals to advance directly through the Champions League quarterfinals, as away goals no longer serve as a tiebreaker in the second leg, meaning a one-goal victory would send the tie to extra time. History, at least, offers some comfort. Madrid hold a 13-11 advantage in all-time wins against Bayern. In addition to that, they have gone nine consecutive meetings without defeat against the German side.
Manager Álvaro Arbeloa was defiant in his pre-match press conference. “We can be up to the task. In Munich they’re convinced that with the lead they have and playing at home they’re favourites – and that’s fair enough. But they’ll have white shirts and a round badge in front of them. I’m sure we’ll put up a real fight,” he said.
The Real Madrid lineup to face Bayern: uncertainty in defense and midfield
The probable starting XI has Lunin in goal; Alexander-Arnold, Rüdiger, Éder Militão and Fran García in defense; with Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham, Arda Güler, Mbappé and Vinícius making up the rest of the side. The central defensive partnership remains uncertain, with Dean Huijsen also in contention to partner the seemingly irreplaceable Antonio Rüdiger.
The confirmed absence is Aurélien Tchouameni, suspended after accumulating too many yellow cards. His loss forces Arbeloa to reshape the midfield, where Camavinga, a deeper-lying Valverde or Thiago are the most likely solutions. None of them replicate the Frenchman’s defensive balance exactly, which could expose Madrid during transitions against a high-pressing Bayern side.
Bayern, with Luis Díaz and Kane, hold firm on home soil
Bayern will look to impose themselves at home while Real Madrid lean on their own history. The Spanish club have built their European mystique precisely on improbable comebacks and decisive performances in the biggest moments.
Kompany’s side is expected to line up with Neuer in goal; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah and Stanišić in defense; Kimmich and Pavlović as a double pivot; and Olise, Gnabry and Luis Díaz behind Kane up front. It was Díaz and Kane who did the damage in the first leg at the Bernabéu.
Mbappé and Vinicius: the whole lineup rests on their shoulders
With Rodrygo out for the season with a cruciate ligament injury, the attacking burden falls almost entirely on Mbappé and Vinicius. Mbappé leads the tournament’s scoring charts with 14 goals in ten appearances. The catch is that both he and Bellingham are one booking away from a ban, meaning Madrid must navigate the night with discipline as well as ambition.
Tonight at the Allianz Arena is, once again, the ultimate test of who Real Madrid really are in Europe.
